Ohio State vs. Northwestern: Week 11 odds, kickoff time and model prediction

A Big Ten matchup is on tap in Columbus, where No. 20 Ohio State welcomes Northwestern to Ohio Stadium on Saturday. The Wildcats arrived Friday, ahead of a ground stoppage in Columbus, for the Week 11 contest at the Horseshoe.

Both teams enter at 6-3, though they arrive on very different trajectories. The Buckeyes have dropped two straight games and will be looking to get right in front of their home crowd. Northwestern, meanwhile, has been reliable for bettors, covering the spread in five of eight games this season.

Ohio State will once again turn to Luke Fahey at quarterback, with Julian Sayin still out indefinitely. The Buckeyes are also without running back Ja'Kobi Jackson, who remains sidelined with a foot injury. Northwestern is expected to start Nicco Marchiol under center in place of Aidan Chiles.

Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET. The latest odds list Ohio State as a 14-point favorite, and the over/under sits at 45.5 points, a number that has come down two points from the opening line.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has run the matchup and come away with a clear lean on the total: the Over at 45.5.

The trends support that read. Northwestern has gone Over in six of nine games this season, and Ohio State stands at 5-4 to the Over, giving both programs a tendency toward higher-scoring games. The Wildcats' most recent road game went Over the total, and the same was true of the Buckeyes' last outing at home.

Even with both teams expected to rely on backup quarterbacks, the model projects enough offensive production on each side to clear the number. Its simulations point to 50 combined points, with the Over cashing 65 percent of the time.

The model has also identified a play against the spread, projecting that one side of the 14-point number hits well over 50 percent of the time in its 10,000 simulations.

Saturday's game gives Ohio State an opportunity to halt its skid and steady itself at home, while Northwestern looks to continue its strong season against the spread and pull off a result in one of college football's toughest venues.