Coalition math shifts focus to Arab seats

Mansour Abbas, the leader of Ra’am, paused late on election night to address a question about the specific conditions Gadi Eisenkot had set for working with Arab parties. Instead of listing demands, Abbas pointed to a more immediate problem: whether a viable government could be formed at all. In an interview with Channel 16, he stated that the arithmetic of the final results must be established before any negotiations on terms begin.

This sequence of events reflects the uncertainty in the current projections. Three broadcasters suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc falls short of a parliamentary majority. However, Channel 14 released an updated projection that places the bloc above the necessary threshold. These numbers remain projections until the official results are finalized. In Israel’s 120-seat Knesset, a coalition requires 61 seats to hold a majority.

The political weight of Arab citizens is central to this calculation. An Arab voter’s ballot counts toward that majority in the same manner as a Jewish voter’s. This mathematical reality has shaped Israeli politics before. Ra’am joined the Bennett-Lapid coalition in 2021, helping to sustain a government led initially by a prime minister from the right. That historical precedent places Arab parties near the center of the current negotiation dynamics.

Strategic differences exist between the main Arab lists. Abbas has indicated that Ra’am is prepared to participate directly in a new government. In contrast, the Joint List, which includes Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad, has offered to support a government from outside. Yousef Jabareen, the Joint List leader, has demanded a funded and monitored plan to combat crime as a condition for support. His party has also set red lines regarding national issues, specifically war and settlement budgets.

Ra’am has taken a step that highlights internal complexity by recruiting Yoav Segalovitz. Segalovitz is a Jewish former Yesh Atid lawmaker who once headed Israel’s national serious-crime unit. His move to a party with Islamist-conservative roots brings questions of policing and political identity into the coalition calculus. This decision adds a layer of negotiation that extends beyond simple seat counts.

The conditions for partnership remain a point of contention. Eisenkot described his requirements in September, including the acceptance of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state and the recognition that Hamas is a terrorist organization. He stated that he saw no Arab party meeting those principles. He later ruled out aligning with any Arab party in a podcast reported by Reuters in October. These statements frame the potential friction in forming a stable majority.

Other Jewish leaders offer differing views on the same arrangement. Naftali Bennett, who led the government that included Ra’am in 2021, now opposes repeating that coalition. He cited the party’s non-Zionist character as the primary objection. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, supports bringing Ra’am into a coalition. These conflicting positions mean that the final government composition will depend on specific policy agreements and the level of trust between partners.

The next step in the process involves finalizing the seat totals to determine which parties hold the balance of power. Abbas’s initial assessment focuses on this viability check. The outcome will determine whether Ra’am enters the cabinet, supports a government from the opposition, or remains in a distinct political role. The final numbers will dictate the terms of these negotiations.