Israel's Post-War Vote Heads Toward Deadlock as Neither Bloc Reaches Majority

Israelis go to the polls on Tuesday in the first national election held since the October 7, 2023, attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza.

A final survey by public broadcaster KAN projected that the opposition alliance would secure 52 seats while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc would take 50. With 120 seats in the Knesset, neither side reaches the 61 required for a majority. The remaining 18 seats are expected to go to unaffiliated parties, including the two main Arab-majority lists, Ra'am and the Joint List. A 3.25 percent threshold is required for a party to enter parliament.

The pro-Netanyahu coalition consists of Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition group includes the Yashar party led by Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats led by Yair Golan, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance joined by Yair Lapid. Both major blocs have indicated they will not partner with Arab-led parties for the immediate future. This stance may complicate coalition negotiations and increase the likelihood of a minority government or a repeat election.

Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said secular and liberal opposition factions view this ballot as the last chance to save Israeli democracy. Critics also point to Netanyahu's judicial reform efforts and the ultra-Orthodox military exemption as key domestic issues. The vote follows a period of rising international criticism, including sanctions on West Bank settlements and a walkout by dozens of envoys during Netanyahu's September 24 address to the United Nations General Assembly.

Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for more than 15 of the last 17 years, faces corruption charges dating to 2019 and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant. A defeat could leave him more vulnerable in his ongoing trial. Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polls suggest Arab turnout could reach 60 percent, potentially allowing those parties to win up to 15 seats. Campaigners are targeting a 70 percent turnout rate, which would mark the highest in decades.

The Supreme Court recently reversed a Central Elections Committee decision that had barred the Joint List and Ra'am from running. The court also removed Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race following an article describing the October 7 attacks as an important historical event. Netanyahu has argued that only Likud can prevent an alliance with Arab parties. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, described that argument as a strategy to keep Netanyahu in office as a caretaker if no bloc wins a majority. Meanwhile, roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem have no vote in the government that controls their borders and legal status.