Serbia's new government turns to domestic cleanup before foreign policy shifts

The Student List won a historic election in Serbia on Sunday, ending 14 years of rule by Aleksandar Vucic and the Serbian Progressive Party. The victory marks a sharp break from the previous administration, yet experts warn that major shifts in foreign policy will not happen immediately. Domestic consolidation will take precedence over external alignments in the coming months.

Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that relations with neighboring countries will not be the first agenda item. The new authorities must first address a system that has captured democratic institutions, including the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media. Popov described the process as tidying up at home before solving problems with neighbors, despite the outgoing regime's efforts to undermine regional ties.

Relations with Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo have often been strained by nationalistic rhetoric. Popov noted that ties with Croatia are not frozen but are marked by frequent sharp words, including Vucic's accusation that Zagreb organized a color revolution during recent mass protests. Behind the public hostility, Belgrade and Zagreb have quietly converged on issues regarding Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Belgrade backing Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and Zagreb favoring a third entity.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King’s College London, predicted that foreign policy will transform the least under the new government. Many international and domestic structures shaping these policies will remain in place. While Russian influence will face a blow due to the end of uncritical media support, the new government is unlikely to adopt a hawkish stance overnight. Serbia still requires preferential gas prices, and the Kosovo dispute remains unresolved. Vuksanovic said the new government will not join EU sanctions or take a hard line against Moscow.

Regarding Ukraine, Serbia will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas. However, the future of ammunition deliveries is uncertain, as the opposition viewed Vucic’s weapons sales to Kyiv as a cynical ploy to buy Western tolerance. Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, said ties with Israel will not be severed, but new contracts concerning ammunition exports and surveillance equipment will face scrutiny. Jaksic noted that Netanyahu’s government lost another authoritarian ally in Europe, and Serbia’s future stance will depend on the outcome of Israel’s own elections.

The new government is expected to review the policy of sitting on multiple chairs, which analysts say brought Serbia more harm than good. Strengthening ties with the European Union is seen as a realistic next step. The international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments.