US Dementia Diagnoses to Double as Care Staffing Shrinks

The United States faces a widening gap between the rising number of people with dementia and the shrinking capacity of the healthcare system to treat them. Projections indicate that annual new diagnoses will double within three decades, creating a strain on a workforce that is already struggling to meet basic demand.

A study in Jama Neurology estimates that global new dementia cases will rise from 11.4 million in 2023 to 24.7 million in 2050. For the United States specifically, a separate Jama study from 2024 projects that annual diagnoses among adults will grow from 514,000 in 2020 to 1 million by 2060.

Demographers identify two main drivers for this increase. Longer life expectancy means more people are reaching the age range where dementia is most common. Additionally, the Hispanic population in the US nearly doubled between 2000 and 2024. The Alzheimer's Association notes that Hispanic people are 1.5 times as likely as white people to develop the condition.

"Even if you reduce the risk of dementia, just the sheer number of adults who are entering the ages where dementia is most common will increase the number of people living with and who develop dementia," said Jordan Weiss, an assistant professor at the Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone.

The workforce needed to care for these patients is thinning. A 2024 report by the American Health Care Association found that almost all nursing facilities had trouble recruiting staff. Two-thirds cited a lack of qualified candidates as a primary issue, and about half reported limiting new admissions.

Wages in the sector remain low relative to the physical demands of the work. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the median wage for nursing assistants in assisted living and home healthcare was under $19 an hour in May 2025. Home health aides earned a median of $17 an hour. Regina Shih, a professor of epidemiology at Emory University, noted that retention is very low because the work is difficult and cannot be replaced by artificial intelligence.

The shortage extends to physicians. The US had 10,270 geriatricians in 2000 but only 7,413 in 2022, according to a Jama report. Geriatrics is among the lowest-paid medical specialties. In response, almost half of states offered incentive payments to recruit or retain Medicaid home care workers in 2025, per a KFF survey. South Carolina created a loan forgiveness program for physicians who complete geriatrics fellowships and practice in the state for at least five years.

These state efforts occur against the backdrop of federal changes. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed in 2025, included nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts over 10 years. Medicaid pays for more than half of US long-term care spending. While the FDA has approved two drugs, Kisunla and Leqembi, that modestly slow cognitive decline in early Alzheimer's, experts note these treatments are costly. Weiss emphasized the need to build a system capable of delivering care for people who already have the disease, rather than waiting for a cure.