Patriots face Dolphins in rainy Miami matchup as betting odds favor New England
New England enters the game at 4-3 after a loss to Chicago, while Miami is 1-5 but has won its last two games.
By Tomas Rahman ·
The New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins meet on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium, with kickoff set for 4:25 p.m. ET. The weather forecast calls for rain in South Florida, adding a variable to a contest that prediction markets see as heavily skewed toward New England.
On Polymarket, the odds show a 75% chance of a Patriots victory. The probability of a Dolphins win sits at 25%. SportsLine’s projection model, which simulates the game 10,000 times, offers a slightly different view. In that model, the Dolphins win 33% of the time. The market also prices the likelihood of a Patriots margin of victory greater than 6.5 points at 52%, with the opposite outcome at 48%.
New England comes into the game with a 4-3 record. The Patriots lost at the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football, ending a three-game winning streak. Before that loss, the team had gone 3-1 in its final four games. Quarterback Drake Maye has led the offense to scores of 29, 45, 26, and 24 points during that four-game stretch.
The Dolphins, now 1-5, snapped a four-game losing streak last week by defeating the New York Jets 28-25 in the Meadowlands. Miami had scored 13 or fewer points in each of its first four games of the season. That trend reversed in its last two contests, where the team put up 24 and 28 points. Quarterback Malik Willis has thrown for five total touchdowns over the last two weeks.
Betting markets are split on the total points. The odds for more than 43.5 combined points are 50% yes and 50% no. Each of the Patriots' last four games and both of the Dolphins' recent games have exceeded that threshold. In over 60% of SportsLine’s simulations, these AFC East rivals combined for at least 44 points.
The New England squad trails the first-place Buffalo Bills by 1.5 games in the AFC East division. However, the Patriots defeated the Bills in their only meeting this season. The Dolphins’ recent improvement in scoring output has coincided with their first two wins of the year, marking a shift from their early season struggles.
Source: CBS Sports
