COP31 Opens in Antalya as U.S. Delegation Stays Away

Country leaders gathered in Antalya, Turkey, on November 9 for the start of the 31st annual United Nations climate conference. The two week event begins under the shadow of the ongoing U.S. and Israeli war with Iran, which has now lasted nine months. The conflict triggered a global energy crisis marked by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and sharp increases in oil and natural gas prices.

Kingsmill Bond, an analyst at the energy think tank Ember, noted that this crisis differs from previous shocks because cheap solutions are now available. He pointed to solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles as technologies that provide both economic security and lower emissions. Bond stated, "This is the first time you've really had a global energy shock where you've got really cheap solutions to address it." He added that the economic advantages of these technologies create more opportunity for nations to support change at the summit.

The conference focuses heavily on electrification, a term that encompasses solar, battery, and electric vehicle technologies. Bond described the central target as increasing the global electrification rate from the current 23% to 35% by 2035. He called this goal the mantra of the conference. Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, agreed that growing the electricity mix with cleaner renewable energy is a reasonable assumption. She noted that solar and wind projects have become more cost competitive than natural gas and coal, according to data from financial services firm Lazard.

Negotiators are also working on a roadmap to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. More than 25 nations are developing a legally binding treaty to phase out oil, gas, and coal, an effort that originated at a conference in April. Fossil fuel producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia have historically opposed including specific language on fossil fuels in final agreements. Organizers hope to gain more support for the treaty during the Antalya session.

The United States will not send a delegation to COP31, according to a State Department email. This marks the second year in a row that the U.S. has been absent from the main talks, following its absence at last year's summit in Brazil. The current administration has reversed several climate actions, including phasing out subsidies for clean energy and reducing greenhouse gas regulations. However, several Democratic lawmakers are attending. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island said the group intends to focus on fossil fuels and a potential carbon pricing mechanism. He stated, "It cannot remain free for the fossil fuel industry to pollute if we want to have any chance of a pathway to climate safety."

The conference is scheduled to run for two weeks, with final negotiations expected to conclude in late November.